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If we add a further 4 secs to the 3km prediction (72 secs), that is his forecast for 5km. “If we now add 4 secs to this (68 secs), that is his forecast for running 3K. ![]() Horwill’s brainstorm was to note that paces at the standard race distances: 1500m, 3000m, 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon follow a fairly linear progression, with each step up the ladder entailing about the same amount of slow-down as the one before it.įor example, he wrote in an undated article now reprinted by the London-based Serpentine running club, consider “John,” a 4-minute 1500m runner. It’s also a pretty good rule of thumb for road runners trying to extrapolate a 5K goal from a mile, or a marathon goal from a half-marathon or even a 10K. 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